The biggest referendum on the Trump administration in 2025
Virginia’s statewide elections this fall are critical for those of us who care about the future of our democracy
This November, voters in Virginia will elect a new Governor and other statewide leaders in a campaign that will be seen as the largest test of the anti-MAGA coalition in the second Trump era. The Commonwealth’s “off-year” elections are commonly seen as a referendum on the party in power in Washington, and 2025 is no exception.
Last month, both parties selected their (female!) nominees for the general election, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears facing off against former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger in the gubernatorial race. Earle-Sears has a large, dedicated following online and has Virginia Republicans fired up. She would be the first Black female governor in U.S. history if elected. On the Left, Spanberger will no doubt run a disciplined campaign backed by a united Democratic party that cleared the field for her candidacy.
Because of the national political importance of this race, the election has the potential to impact so much more than who occupies the governor’s mansion. National advocacy and voter engagement groups will use the Virginia elections to test new tactics to scale in next year’s midterm races, while political pundits and politicians across the country will be taking note of the messaging used in the campaign, the issues debated, and the outcomes among certain demographic groups. If Democrats win by a wider-than-expected margin, it could both create divisions among the MAGA ruling coalition in DC and bolster enthusiasm for a struggling Democratic Party months ahead of the 2026 midterms.
In 2024, Kamala Harris only won Virginia 53%-47% - a healthy margin of roughly 260,000 votes. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the Governor’s race by just ~64,000 votes.
The Northern Virginia suburbs - where a third of the Commonwealth’s population resides - will be a key focus of the statewide races, and is home to communities devastated by the Trump administration’s shocking and disastrous cuts to the federal workforce. Likewise, it is an axiom of Virginia politics that control of the legislature runs through Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach – an area home to large numbers of active military and veterans navigating federal cuts, a port gashed by tariffs, and a hospitality industry getting crushed by the dropoff in tourism Trump has instigated. All of these voters need actionable information on who is responsible for the economic pain inflicted on their lives, and who is fighting for their families’ interests.
That’s where we come in. COURIER got its start in Virginia, launching our first ever newsroom, Dogwood, in the Commonwealth in 2019, and have been earning the trust of hundreds of thousands of Virginians with our factual, community-focused and social-first local reporting ever since. Staffed by a team of five and supported by a growing network of trusted content creators on the ground throughout the state, Dogwood has been publishing dozens of newsletter issues, engaging social content series, and original news reports every week, breaking down what’s happening in the must-watch Virginia cycle.
Following coverage of the primaries, our team has highlighted both of the Gubernatorial candidates’ stances on the minimum wage, federal layoffs, reproductive rights, and LGBT equality, among other issues, while continuing to hold the Youngkin administration accountable for their Trump-aligned policies.
We’re not just focused on the top-of-the-ticket race either; our reporters are also doggedly covering the campaign for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and other down-ballot races. As the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor is currently embroiled in a major (and pretty spicy) scandal, our team has been there to educate our audiences about what is happening. Here’s an explainer from Dogwood reporter Michael O’Connor, which is currently one of the most-viewed pieces of content on TikTok mentioning the scandal:
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As a result of this work, we’ve built some of Virginia's largest social media accounts focused on community news and local politics. Our online audience of over 102,000 followers and subscribers exceeds that of most elected officials in the state, and we’re receiving more than 200,000 views on our social content each week. Most importantly, we’re focused on reaching audiences who are less likely to follow or subscribe to other political news outlets.
Values-driven news outlets like Dogwood are one example of permanent, year-round media infrastructure that the pro-Democracy movement should invest in. Too often, local news is stuck behind paywalls or written for elite audiences to consume, and paid ads on TV and digital are no longer resonating (if they are even reaching) the most critical voters. By reaching audiences on platforms where they spend their time, with content formatted in the ways they consume information, our reporters are building genuine relationships and trust with our audiences that last over time.
If you’re in Virginia or following the state's races, make sure you follow Dogwood on TikTok, Instagram, and sign up for their newsletter here or share these links with your friends in the Commonwealth. Every new follower, subscriber, and piece of Dogwood content shared by folks like you helps us reach even more voters with the news they need to make informed choices at the polls this fall. It’s going to be a big year and we can all do our part by sharing good information to shape the narrative and build the foundational momentum (and hope) we all could use going into 2026.
- Tara
P.S. We are always looking for more local creators with trusted followings in all of our states to help amplify good, local journalism, but especially in Virginia right now! If you are or know of a creator in Virginia looking to support voter education and content amplification this year, please just reply to this note and I can connect you with our team.
What I’m reading this week:
Paramount Board Clears Possible Path for Settling Trump’s ‘60 Minutes’ Lawsuit (NYT, 4/29)
Lawyers for President Trump and Paramount, the parent of CBS News, are set to begin mediation on Wednesday over a lawsuit brought by Mr. Trump that accuses “60 Minutes” of deceptively editing an interview with his 2024 Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. Legal experts have called the suit baseless and an easy victory for CBS. But Paramount is entering the talks prepared to make a deal.”
The Los Angeles Times Said to Have Lost $50 Million in 2024, as Subscription and Ad Losses Mount (AdWeek, 4/29)
“The publisher has lost ad spend from Netflix, as well as 25,000 subscribers, in recent months.”
How Ezra Klein’s YouTube Makeover Points to Podcasting’s TV Future (Vanity Fair, 4/28)
“Major news outlets, like The New York Times and The Atlantic, and ex-cable stars are finding audiences on YouTube. “It is television,” says Mediaite founder Dan Abrams. “Anyone who still thinks of YouTube as something for your phone or computer isn’t paying attention.”
Media Briefing: What The Washington Post’s deal with OpenAI says about the future of AI content licensing (Digiday, 5/1)
“The Washington Post’s agreement focuses on surfacing its content in response to news-related queries. ‘As part of this partnership, ChatGPT will display summaries, quotes, and links to original reporting from The Post in response to relevant questions,’ reads the announcement on April 22 about the Post’s deal with OpenAI.